The Democratic-majority New York state Legislature has revealed a fresh congressional map on Tuesday, potentially bolstering their party’s chances in the upcoming November elections for the US House. The newly proposed district boundaries, which are anticipated to be swiftly approved, were disclosed a day after the Democrats in the legislature dismissed a map proposed by the New York Independent Redistricting Commission, opting to draft their own instead.
According to experts, the Democrats’ map could enhance their prospects of gaining seats in up to two districts. However, the map stops short of a severe partisan gerrymander that could have significantly amplified the Democratic likelihood of a House takeover. New York is seen as a critical battleground in the struggle for House control, where Republicans currently maintain a slim majority.
“The map introduces subtle changes at the fringes,” commented Jeffrey Wice, a redistricting expert and an adjunct professor at New York Law School. “It’s far from the kind of plan that Republicans were apprehensive about.”
The state lawmakers have retained the commission’s boundaries for a central New York seat, currently held by freshman Republican Brandon Williams. This includes more Democrat-friendly territory and could lead to a Democratic victory in the fall. However, the Democrats in the state Legislature have also made a Hudson Valley seat, currently held by another Republican freshman, Marc Molinaro, more competitive than the commission’s compromise map had.
Furthermore, state lawmakers have strengthened Democrat Tom Suozzi’s 3rd Congressional District seat on Long Island, which Democrats recently flipped in a special election. The district now represented by Democrat Jamaal Bowman, a notable progressive, has also been adjusted to include parts of a large Black community in the Bronx that he lost in the 2022 redistricting. However, another predominantly African American community was removed from his district, leaving it unclear whether Bowman has gained an advantage in his closely watched Democratic primary against Westchester County Executive George Latimer.
Wice suggested that the more restrained approach adopted by New York Democrats in drafting the congressional map could be an attempt to avoid further litigation, following lengthy legal battles that ensued after the 2020 census concluded. “The question becomes whether Republicans perceive any Democratic advantage as significant enough to take this back to court,” he said. “The fight for the House of Representatives boils down to a district-by-district battle. Every district counts.”
Some Republicans are reserving their judgment. Adam Kincaid, president and executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, stated that his team is still assessing the proposed map. “The most favorable moves in this map are toward Democrats, and some changes exceed the 2% guardrail,” Kincaid said, referring to a New York law that prohibits lawmakers from making a more than 2% population change in a district from a previous version of a congressional map. “These are points of concern,” he added, “but the map broadly appears to comply with the New York Constitution.”
Under New York law, the state Legislature has the authority to review the independent commission’s map. A two-thirds majority vote is required in each chamber to approve or reject maps. The Democrats’ map is the latest development in a protracted battle over New York’s US House districts. A state court judge oversaw the process of drawing the congressional map used in the 2022 elections. This occurred after the Independent Redistricting Commission failed to agree on new lines following the 2020 census and a map drawn by the Democratic-controlled Legislature was rejected by the Court of Appeals, New York’s highest court.
Democrats, arguing that the court-drawn map should not be used for more than one election, returned to court, requesting the redistricting commission to try again. The Court of Appeals, now under more liberal control, agreed late last year and tasked the commission with drawing a new map. However, this map was rejected by state lawmakers this week. This story and headline have been updated with additional information.