Despite President Joe Biden’s declining approval ratings, Democrats often argue that they perform well when it comes to actual voting, regardless of what the polls suggest. This argument is backed by their strong performance in special and off-year elections since the 2022 midterms. The upcoming special election in New York’s 3rd Congressional District, where former Rep. Tom Suozzi and Nassau County Legislator Mazi Pilip are vying to replace the controversial George Santos, provides an opportunity to test this theory.
Will Suozzi’s potential victory serve as another instance of Democrats defying national polling trends? Or will Pilip’s win demonstrate the Republicans’ ability to secure crucial races in areas where Biden had a comfortable win in 2020? This single election on Long Island may seem insignificant, but it holds intriguing implications.
Too Close to Call
As Election Day approaches, the race appears to be a nail-biter. A recent Newsday/Siena College poll shows Suozzi leading with 48% against Pilip’s 44%, a result within the margin of error. With the forecast predicting unfavorable weather in the Nassau County and eastern Queens district, it’s uncertain who will come out on top.
Historical Voting Patterns
The tight race aligns with the district’s recent voting history. While Biden won the seat in 2020 by 8 points, Republicans have been dominating local races since then. GOP candidates for governor and US Senate won the district by margins between 4 and 12 points in 2022, as did Santos. Therefore, even a narrow victory for Suozzi would be a significant achievement for Democrats, considering the Republicans’ recent success in the area.
Off-Year Election Results
Outside of Long Island, Democrats have had a strong showing in last year’s major elections. They won the Kentucky gubernatorial election, maintained their majority in the Virginia Senate, flipped the Virginia House, and secured a Wisconsin Supreme Court race. However, many analysts, including myself, have cautioned against reading too much into these results due to typically low off-year election turnouts.
Presidential Election Year
As we enter a presidential election year, there are indications that these off-year results may be more significant than initially thought. National pollsters have been focusing on registered voters, but not all of them will vote in the presidential election. When pollsters such as Ipsos and The New York Times have focused on those certain or likely to vote this year, Biden has performed significantly better against his likely Republican opponent, Donald Trump.
Implications of the Election Result
A win for Suozzi would further validate the Democrats’ argument that they perform well when voters are exposed to a full-fledged campaign. Conversely, a victory for Pilip would suggest that the national political landscape hasn’t changed much since the last time Republicans secured a significant win. Regardless of the outcome, both sides will undoubtedly attempt to spin the New York special election result, especially considering the more than $10 million spent on ads, which have been playing incessantly on local television.