The Republican Senate primary in Ohio on Tuesday serves as the first litmus test of former President Donald Trump’s sway in a contested Senate race this year. The outcome could provide insights into the future of Sen. Sherrod Brown and the Democratic majority. State Sen. Matt Dolan, one of the three Republican contenders in the heated primary, questioned his supporters in Columbus on Monday night, “Are we ready to win and retire Sherrod Brown from Ohio politics?”
Despite the GOP’s concentrated efforts to unseat Brown in the upcoming November elections, the discourse has been dominated by Trump and a recent rally near Dayton. Trump’s ominous predictions of a “bloodbath” for the auto industry largely eclipsed the purpose of his Buckeye State rally, which was to bolster his favored candidate, businessman Bernie Moreno.
Trump’s involvement in this race is significant as national Republicans, who have decided to participate in primaries this year to prevent flawed general election nominees, have abstained from this one. With the GOP presidential nomination already secured last week, Trump has much at stake in Ohio on Tuesday.
As Election Day approaches, an ad from the Moreno campaign emphasizes the former president’s central role in their messaging. The ad states, “MAGA alert: President Trump wants you to vote for outsider businessman Bernie Moreno. Trump endorsed Bernie Moreno for Senate.”
However, Democrats are also attempting to leverage the former president’s popularity in this red state to their benefit. An external group linked with Senate Democrats’ leading super PAC entered the already costly primary last week, launching ads that underscore Moreno’s support from Trump to boost him over Dolan and Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose. The ad declares, “Donald Trump needs Bernie Moreno. Ohio doesn’t.”
To secure reelection, Brown requires a substantial portion of Trump’s voters in a state that the former president won twice by 8 points. Brown, a three-term incumbent, is one of two Democrats seeking reelection this year in states Trump carried – the other being Montana Sen. Jon Tester. Republicans only need to flip one or two seats – depending on the White House’s occupant – to control the Senate, and they’ve already effectively gained one, with West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin not seeking reelection. This increases the pressure on Brown to retain his seat in a state that has been leaning red in recent years.
On the eve of the GOP primary, Brown attempted to link his Republican adversaries together, stating he had no preference for his opponent. He told reporters in Dayton on Monday, “I’ll let the rich guys fight it out. They’re spending their inheritance in this race. We know one thing – that they are all pretty much the same.”
The willingness of Moreno and Dolan to invest their personal wealth into their campaigns has contributed to making this race one of the most expensive contests of the 2024 cycle. With over $40 million spent as of Monday, Ohio’s Senate race is only surpassed by the US presidential race, the 2023 Kentucky governor’s race, and the 2024 California Senate race in total ad spending.
An Expensive and Divisive Race That’s Splitting the Ohio GOP
The recent endorsement of Dolan by Gov. Mike DeWine and former Sen. Rob Portman – the only candidate who has not explicitly endorsed Trump – has underscored the division within the GOP between its Trump and establishment factions. At a crowded sports bar in Columbus’s German Village neighborhood on Monday night, Dolan attempted to associate Brown with President Joe Biden, indicating that his fall argument would focus on challenging the administration’s record on inflation and immigration.
Dolan only mentioned Trump in passing, assuring supporters that he could outperform him in the suburbs. He stated, “We have to recognize that civility in politics is not a weakness. We need to judge strength not on how loud we are, but by how much we get done for the American people.”
DeWine urged Republicans to carefully consider their choice in the fiercely contested race. He emphasized that foreign policy should be a critical issue in the fall campaign and drew clear distinctions with Trump and his lenient approach towards Russian President Vladimir Putin. He said, “We have to win in November. The person who clearly has the best shot of winning in the fall is Matt Dolan – I think our common sense tells us that.”
However, Ohio Republican strategists told CNN that the governor’s endorsement could be a double-edged sword for Dolan. It could boost turnout among older and higher-educated Republicans, with whom Dolan is likely to perform well, but it could also alienate some voters.
Trump criticized Dolan during his speech, exacerbating the party’s split by attempting to link him to GOP Sen. Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP presidential nominee, and denouncing him as a RINO, or “Republican in Name Only,” whose family changed the name of the Cleveland Indians to the Cleveland Guardians.
Despite Moreno’s own history of criticizing Trump – he once referred to him as a “fake Republican,” as CNN’s KFile previously reported – several Trump supporters told CNN ahead of his rally that they planned to support Moreno primarily because of the former president’s endorsement.
LaRose, who lacks the personal wealth of his opponents but has argued that his experience as the only statewide elected official in the race makes him best positioned to defeat Brown, downplayed the impact of both Trump and DeWine. He told reporters following a campaign stop in Sandusky over the weekend, “Endorsements are not the thing that most people make their decision based on. And it feels like one of my opponents in particular is trying to hide behind endorsements because he’s got a pretty liberal record that he doesn’t really want to explain. And that’s Moreno.”
Taking the Fight to the Fall
Brown declined to say on Monday whether he believed Moreno would be the easiest to face in the fall, as several Democratic strategists in Ohio have argued. He admitted his race for a fourth term is the most challenging contest of a career in elected office that spans nearly half a century. “Sure,” Brown said, “it may be my toughest race.”
Ohio voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 before backing Trump by 8 points in both 2016 and 2020. Brown, known as a progressive populist, is the last Democrat to hold a nonjudicial statewide office in the Buckeye State. He won his last race, against a weak challenger without national party backing, by 7 points in 2018.
Brown signaled the issues he intended to play offense on as a Democratic candidate running for reelection in the increasingly Republican-leaning state. “They all are for a national abortion ban. They have never supported organized labor. They’re all three against the minimum wage,” Brown said of his GOP opponents. “We’ll be ready for whoever it is.”
Contributions to this report were made by CNN’s David Wright.