As the eight-month general election looms, both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump find themselves in a quandary: to debate or not to debate?
Trump’s Stance
Trump, in his characteristic style, has taken to social media to declare his readiness to debate Biden “ANYTIME, ANYWHERE, ANYPLACE.” However, his past actions seem to contradict his bold proclamation. Notably, he did not participate in any Republican National Committee (RNC)-sponsored primary debates in this election cycle. Furthermore, he is the only modern, major-party nominee to have withdrawn from a general election debate, a move he made during the pandemic four years ago. In 2022, the RNC severed ties with the nonpartisan system that has been organizing general election debates since the 1988 presidential campaign, a decision that Trump has since capitalized on to restructure the RNC.
Biden’s Position
On the other side of the aisle, Biden, who faced minimal primary opposition this year, has been evasive about his willingness to debate Trump in the general election, stating it “depends on his behavior.” The Democratic National Committee did not sponsor any primary debates this year. The question of whether either man will grace the debate stage remains unanswered, despite the Commission on Presidential Debates having a detailed plan for three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate.
The Commission on Presidential Debates
The Commission on Presidential Debates is a nonpartisan organization with leaders from both political parties. It is funded by the communities that host debates and, to a lesser extent, by corporate, foundation, and private donors. The commission has been the sponsor of the debates since 1988.
Historical Context of Presidential Debates
The first presidential debates were held in 1960 between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon, sponsored by TV networks. The tradition of presidential debates was established in 1976 when President Gerald Ford challenged Jimmy Carter. Since then, there have typically been two or three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate per cycle.
Debate Schedule and Format
The commission announced the debate schedule last November, although the exact format, topics, and moderators are yet to be determined. The commission selects debate locations after accepting bids, which are typically from college campuses.
Debate Participation Criteria
The commission sets the criteria for candidates to qualify for the debates. In the commission era, the only non-major-party candidate to participate in debates was Ross Perot in 1992. To qualify, a candidate must be constitutionally eligible to serve as president, appear on the ballot in enough states to mathematically win the election, and garner at least 15% support in national polling from five different polling organizations selected by the commission.
The Importance of Debates
Debates offer a unique opportunity for voters to see the candidates side by side, confronting each other. They can motivate voters, help candidates overcome negative perceptions, and reinforce negative perceptions about their opponents. Debates typically draw enormous ratings, second only to the Super Bowl.
Notable Debate Winners and Losers
From Nixon’s poor performance in the first presidential debate to Al Gore’s sighing that cost him votes in 2000, debates have seen notable winners and losers. They have also witnessed memorable moments like Ronald Reagan’s zinger addressing concerns about his age and Bill Clinton’s ability to connect with the audience in a town hall format.
The Future of Debates
Whether Trump and Biden will debate in 2024 remains uncertain. Trump has frequently criticized the commission and debate moderators, alleging bias. Despite this, it would be a bold move for either candidate to forego the opportunity to make their case before an audience of 70 to 80 million people. As the election draws closer, the question remains: will they or won’t they?