The special election to fill the vacant seat of former Rep. George Santos in New York’s 3rd Congressional District is shaping up to be a tight race. This district, a potential battleground that could set the tone for other suburban elections this fall, has seen two months of intense campaigning and significant outside funding.
Encompassing Nassau County on Long Island and northeast Queens, the district is predominantly affluent and well-educated. While Democrats have come to expect victories in such areas, the district’s ideological diversity, a recent shift towards the GOP, and a strong county Republican Party machine make it an unpredictable factor on Election Day.
The outcome of Tuesday’s election could offer valuable insights for both parties as the general election season approaches, with the presidential race and the battle for control of the House likely to hinge on suburban voters’ views.
Key Candidates
Victory for Democrat Tom Suozzi, a former representative of the district in Congress and Nassau County executive, would boost President Joe Biden and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries of Brooklyn. On the other hand, a win for Republican Mazi Pilip, a county legislator from Great Neck, would hint at potential GOP gains nationwide and offer reassurance to New York’s freshman GOP House members facing re-election in November.
Key Issues
Immigration, inflation, Israel, and the Supreme Court’s potential overturning of Roe v. Wade have shaped the political landscape in this district. These issues, along with housing costs, remain at the forefront of the campaign. Immigration has become a hot topic, with Pilip criticizing Suozzi’s past clash with Immigration and Customs Enforcement and blaming him for the migrant crisis in New York City.
The Suozzi Brand vs. the GOP Machine
While Suozzi has deep roots in the district and a moderate political stance, the Democrats have lost races at almost every level on Long Island since 2021. The GOP is following a similar strategy this year, criticizing Suozzi and Biden over New York City’s migrant crisis and rising cost-of-living and housing concerns.
Weather and Voting
Early voting numbers show Democrats turning out at a higher rate, but both parties are not reading too much into this. Democrats tend to vote early, while Republicans usually prefer casting their ballots on Election Day. However, a significant snowstorm forecasted for Election Day could potentially affect voter turnout.
Remember George Santos?
George Santos, the disgraced former representative, has largely been forgotten since his expulsion from Congress last year due to personal misconduct and alleged crimes. His shadow is not expected to significantly influence the election outcome.