In a recent speech, former President Donald Trump inaccurately asserted that crime rates in the United States are exclusively on the rise. However, the majority of US crime figures actually decreased last year, including one of the most significant national reductions in murder ever documented.
Trump’s remarks in Michigan primarily addressed crime committed by individuals who entered the US illegally. He compared the situation to Venezuela, where he claimed, somewhat hyperbolically, that crime rates have dropped due to mass emigration. He then expressed a desire for a similar 67% decrease in US crime rates, stating, “Ours is only going in one direction,” while gesturing upwards.
Facts Contradict Trump’s Claims
Contrary to Trump’s assertions, US crime statistics are not solely increasing. Preliminary FBI statistics reveal that murder, other types of reported violent crime, and reported property crime all decreased in 2023. Crime data expert Jeff Asher suggests that the approximate 13% decrease in murder could be the largest single-year drop on record in US data dating back to 1960. Additionally, the roughly 6% decrease in reported violent crime could be one of the largest on record, with declines observed across the country, in cities of all sizes, and in rural communities.
Furthermore, Asher indicates that partial urban data for early 2024 shows a significant decrease in the number of murders in the first two months of the year.
Experts Refute Trump’s Claims
Anna Harvey, a political science professor and director of the Public Safety Lab at New York University, refutes Trump’s insinuation that crime rates are only increasing. “During 2020, the last year of the Trump presidency, violent crime rose dramatically. The murder rate, for example, increased by almost 30%, the largest one-year increase on record. But violent crime has been falling during the Biden presidency,” she stated.
However, it’s important to note that not all crimes are reported, not every US community experienced declines in murder or violent crime in 2023, and not all categories of crime declined nationally. The key exception was a significant increase in big-city auto thefts, a problem exacerbated by a surge in thefts of certain car models that social media posts revealed were easy to steal.
Conclusion
Despite the caveats, the national declines in 2023 in crimes ranging from murder to rape to aggravated assault to robbery to arson provide no support for Trump’s claim that US crime statistics are only increasing. In fact, Asher informed CNN that the available data suggests that the national rates of murder and overall violent crime were lower in 2023 than they were under Trump in 2020, when the country experienced social and economic turmoil due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Reported violent crime in the US has significantly decreased since the early 1990s. Preliminary data suggests that the rate of reported violent crime in 2023 was either the lowest since the late 1960s or close to it.